Portugal will NEVER join an anti-Habsburg alliance

Wasn't there sizeable anti-Spanish party headed by Cardinal (later King) Henry?

Poland-Lithuania would NEVER ally with the Ottomans (and were willing enough to work with the Habsburg)

The only state that Poland-Lithuania would NEVER ally with was Russia (and even this was sometimes broken), they surely might've ally with Ottomans, some part of nobility would be happy from Ottoman alliance as they requested Sigismund III and Vladislaus IV to try to make peace with Ottomans

most of the German states

Even if they could reduce position of Emperor as a result?

Scandinavian states are not so interested in join such alliance (as Denmark and Sweden have their fights).

Denmark would usually ally with Sweden's enemy.
 
And it's slightly too early for them to pull a Brazil and create a France in Exile.
Actually a better idea! I get the Titanic, bring it to the 1550s and put everyone in France on it (might take a few rounds across the atlantic, but whatever) and we establish a new france in the safety of the new world!
 
Wasn't there sizeable anti-Spanish party headed by Cardinal (later King) Henry?



The only state that Poland-Lithuania would NEVER ally with was Russia (and even this was sometimes broken), they surely might've ally with Ottomans, some part of nobility would be happy from Ottoman alliance as they requested Sigismund III and Vladislaus IV to try to make peace with Ottomans



Even if they could reduce position of Emperor as a result?



Denmark would usually ally with Sweden's enemy.
1) Yes, but the pro-Spanish party would be bigger. Also I clearly stated who don Carlos will live, marry Elisabeth of France and have children by her AND who ATL Sebastian I will die at 14, so Cardinal Henry will loose power much sooner than OTL (as don Carlos is the indisputable and incontestable heir of Sebastian).
2) Getting peace with Ottomans and allying with them are two very different things. Also Sigismund III and Vladislaus IV reigned much later than the timeframe about we were talking (and again ATL Bona will be less anti-Habsburg once Isabella remarried to Archduke Ferdinand and had two child by her, who will be future King of Poland and future Duchess of Milan and Bari).
3) Allying with the Ottomans is bad. Usually German princess stopped to fight the Emperor as soon the Ottomans become dangerous so... Also they are NOT so stupid to actively try to reduce the power of the Emperor (as neither mad Rudolf OR iper-Catholic Ferdinand II will be Emperors here)
4) Exactly, either they stay out (more likely option as that keep England, Netherlands and Scotland friendly) or they would NOT join the same side
 
1) Yes, but the pro-Spanish party would be bigger. Also I clearly stated who don Carlos will live, marry Elisabeth of France and have children by her AND who ATL Sebastian I will die at 14, so Cardinal Henry will loose power much sooner than OTL (as don Carlos is the indisputable and incontestable heir of Sebastian).
2) Getting peace with Ottomans and allying with them are two very different things. Also Sigismund III and Vladislaus IV reigned much later than the timeframe about we were talking (and again ATL Bona will be less anti-Habsburg once Isabella remarried to Archduke Ferdinand and had two child by her, who will be future King of Poland and future Duchess of Milan and Bari).
3) Allying with the Ottomans is bad. Usually German princess stopped to fight the Emperor as soon the Ottomans become dangerous so... Also they are NOT so stupid to actively try to reduce the power of the Emperor (as neither mad Rudolf OR iper-Catholic Ferdinand II will be Emperors here)
4) Exactly, either they stay out (more likely option as that keep England, Netherlands and Scotland friendly) or they would NOT join the same side

1) I don't think that don Carlos given the throne would get along with his father, actually there is potential for some big family feud.
2) There was no problem for allying with them, in fact if pro-Protestant party became dominant in Sejm, they'd ally with Ottomans as they hated Habsburgs the most out of Poland's neighbours.
3) Why it'd be stupid for them to reduce Emperor's powers?
 
1) I don't think that don Carlos given the throne would get along with his father, actually there is potential for some big family feud.
2) There was no problem for allying with them, in fact if pro-Protestant party became dominant in Sejm, they'd ally with Ottomans as they hated Habsburgs the most out of Poland's neighbours.
3) Why it'd be stupid for them to reduce Emperor's powers?
1) Here Carlos is the indisputable heir of Spain and he is the one who married Elisabeth of France
2) Not exactly true and ATL will not happen. Also Sigismund II’s ATL successor will be his Habsburg nephew (son of Isabella).
3) Because Ferdinand/Maximilian/Ernest are not challenging them,too much and they are way too powerful for being attacked without provocations...
 
1) Here Carlos is the indisputable heir of Spain and he is the one who married Elisabeth of France
2) Not exactly true and ATL will not happen. Also Sigismund II’s ATL successor will be his Habsburg nephew (son of Isabella).
3) Because Ferdinand/Maximilian/Ernest are not challenging them,too much and they are way too powerful for being attacked without provocations...

1) IOTL he was also undisputable heir to Spain and he was also mentally unstable, Philip would try to curb his (Carlos's) power in Portugal seeing that letting Carlos realize his projects freely would trigger noble rebellion in Portugal
2) Well, IOTL they wanted to dethronize Sigismund III for allying with Habsburgs. But I guess that Sejm would be dominated by pro-Habsburg Catholic magnate party?
And how old is Sigismund III Habsburg at the time of his uncle's death and is there union of Lublin (tbh this belongs more in DM, but it's up to you where you'd answer)
3) In team with France, there is enough strength to attack Ferdinand/Maximilian/Ernest without provocations.
 
1) IOTL he was also undisputable heir to Spain and he was also mentally unstable, Philip would try to curb his (Carlos's) power in Portugal seeing that letting Carlos realize his projects freely would trigger noble rebellion in Portugal
2) Well, IOTL they wanted to dethronize Sigismund III for allying with Habsburgs. But I guess that Sejm would be dominated by pro-Habsburg Catholic magnate party?
And how old is Sigismund III Habsburg at the time of his uncle's death and is there union of Lublin (tbh this belongs more in DM, but it's up to you where you'd answer)
3) In team with France, there is enough strength to attack Ferdinand/Maximilian/Ernest without provocations.
1) ATL don Carlos is stable, as while Maria Manuela still died in childbirth, both she and Carlos suffered less than OTL and the accident in infancy do not happen; also here both Philip and Carlos are happier than OTL as their lives were highly different (see my next post)
2) Likely. In any case Sigismund of Austria was partially raised in Poland as Barbara Radziwill lived but she and Sisgismund were childless so little Sigismund (who already spoke Polish as his stepmother had taken care of that) was sent in Poland when he was around ten years old, as ward to his uncle. I am not sure of when Sigismund II died ATL, but he was surely alive in 1465 so his nephew was already married and in his 20s at his death (if his uncle died at the OTL date, Sigismund III would be around 27 years old and father of two sons). Union of Lublin is neceswary or Sigismund II can secure Lithuania for his nephew in another way?
3) Not really, as France is encircled by other two branches of Habsburg and ATL Francis II (healthier than OTL) has married an Habsburg princess so they need to be careful. Also keep in mind who ATL protestants are much less powerful than OTL (as England, Netherlands and Scotland are firmly Catholic and Huguenots never reached power in France as Catherine de Medici never take power here)
 
Notes on ATL Philip II and Charles II of Spain
Philip II here will lead a very different life than his OTL counterpart: more or less left (only nominally at the beginning) in charge of Spain since he was a teenager as consequence of his father remarriage, he married thrice, always to first cousins: his first two wives, both death in childbirth, were infantas of Portugal: first Maria Manuela, only daughter of John III, and later to Maria of Viseu, John III’s half-sister. His third wedding (and third wedding also for his last wife), was almost a love match (at least from his side) as he had been highly fascinated by Christine of Denmark, Dowager Duchess of Lorraine after meeting her once had refuged in Netherlands after being ousted from the regency and losing custody of her son.
Philip at that point was a twice widower with three small sons and a little daughter, and Christine older than him and unwilling to remarry as that would means losing any chance to be reunited with her children, but the Emperor, believing who Philip needed another wife and wanting secure the separation between Spain and England, encourages her to accept the match. Beautiful and brilliant Cristina was a loving mother for all her children and stepchildren and a supporting partner for her husband who fully trusted her.

Charles II of Spain meanwhile is eight when his father remarried to Cristina and has already three younger half-sibling (future Cardinal Juan, future Duke Alfonso and future Empress Leonora Maria) and other two will be born before he is twelve (future Duchess of Savoy Isabella Clara Eugenia and future Ferdinand VI of Spain) and as he escaped both the worst of the traumas of his birth and his accident in infancy is a stable, normal boy, who will grow up in a loving family and will fall in love with his French bride as soon he meet her. Carlos and Isabella’s wedding would be happy and he would not have great disagreements with his father before or after inheriting Portugal, who will happen eight years after his wedding. His greatest sufferance was the fact who he and Isabella of France had only a surviving child, a daughter, who would become Queen of Spain as Isabella II. The wedding between his Isabella and his half-brother Ferdinand, arranged by his father without consulting him was the reason for their biggest fight ever but the two Queens were able to restore peace between their husbands (as what truly enraged Carlos was the fact who his father had asked the dispensation without consulting him about the wedding as he also believed who his half-brother Ferdinand was the only possible choice as husband for his heiress).
 
Last edited:
2) Likely. In any case Sigismund of Austria was partially raised in Poland as Barbara Radziwill lived but she and Sisgismund were childless so little Sigismund (who already spoke Polish as his stepmother had taken care of that) was sent in Poland when he was around ten years old, as ward to his uncle. I am not sure of when Sigismund II died ATL, but he was surely alive in 1465 so his nephew was already married and in his 20s at his death (if his uncle died at the OTL date, Sigismund III would be around 27 years old and father of two sons). Union of Lublin is neceswary or Sigismund II can secure Lithuania for his nephew in another way?

Well, if Sigismund II August bothered to do so, he could make Sigismund III Grand Duke during his lifetime instead of giving his hereditary right to Lithuania to Polish crown, or he could try a bargain - he could agree to incorporation of Lithuania to Poland (as Polish nobility wanted) in exchange for Sejm making Sigismund Habsburg and his heirs male hereditary monarchs.
 
Well, if Sigismund II August bothered to do so, he could make Sigismund III Grand Duke during his lifetime instead of giving his hereditary right to Lithuania to Polish crown, or he could try a bargain - he could agree to incorporation of Lithuania to Poland (as Polish nobility wanted) in exchange for Sejm making Sigismund Habsburg and his heirs male hereditary monarchs.
Either work for me, what is the more likely for you, considering who both Sigismund II and Bona want secure the crowns of Poland and Lithuania for Isabella’s only surviving son (as her son by Zapolya here died very young)?
 
Either work for me, what is the more likely for you, considering who both Sigismund II and Bona want secure the crowns of Poland and Lithuania for Isabella’s only surviving son (as her son by Zapolya here died very young)?
Option with Grand Duke of Lithuania seems more likely, because:
-sentiment for Jagiellon blood was stronger in Lithuania than in Poland
-GDL was dominated by magnates, who IOTL were more likely to back Habsburgs than middle nobility. Middle nobility was generally anti-Habsburg. That was true also in Hungary and Bohemia.
 
Option with Grand Duke of Lithuania seems more likely, because:
-sentiment for Jagiellon blood was stronger in Lithuania than in Poland
-GDL was dominated by magnates, who IOTL were more likely to back Habsburgs than middle nobility. Middle nobility was generally anti-Habsburg. That was true also in Hungary and Bohemia.
Then Sigismund III will become Gran Duke of Lithuania just before his wedding to Anne...
 
That would, for sure, cause serious unrest in Poland, especially among Protestants, who'd always see Habsburgs as champions of counter-Reformation.
He is raised in Poland as ward of his maternal uncle since he was ten, and in the five years before that was under influence of his stepmother, who will become GrandDuke at 19 or 20 years old
 
Last edited:
Either work for me, what is the more likely for you, considering who both Sigismund II and Bona want secure the crowns of Poland and Lithuania for Isabella’s only surviving son (as her son by Zapolya here died very young)?

The more likely is option making Sigismund Habsburg GDL during Sig II's lifetime because Sig II can do this at his whim without need to consult anyone. Btw did Sigismund Habsburg inherit Transylvania after his half-brother? Seems like good compromise between Sultan and Ferdinand I.

That would, for sure, cause serious unrest in Poland, especially among Protestants, who'd always see Habsburgs as champions of counter-Reformation.

I don't think that it'd be that serious, it'd be another "wojna kokosza".
 
The more likely is option making Sigismund Habsburg GDL during Sig II's lifetime because Sig II can do this at his whim without need to consult anyone. Btw did Sigismund Habsburg inherit Transylvania after his half-brother? Seems like good compromise between Sultan and Ferdinand I.



I don't think that it'd be that serious, it'd be another "wojna kokosza".
ATL John Zapolya will never rule Transylvania (as he would die before 1550) and likely Hungary will be reunited under Ferdinand‘s de-jure control in the early 1540s, as Isabella’s ATL remarriage to Archduke Ferdinand will be either part of the settlement of Hungary in 1541/42 or proposed by Poland in 1543 for either Archduke Maximilian or Ferdinand (as both Charles V and Ferdinand (I) are married) and accepted for the latter as Ferdinand was against marrying his heir to a woman eight years older than him and was already planning to marry him to Maria of Spain.
 
Top