PC: Prussia acquires Saxony in Third Silesian War?

[dandan_noodles]

Even after years of battle and attrition, by the end of the Seven Years War, Prussia occupied most of Saxony and Silesia, but lacked the strength to take Dresden or Glatz, and thus traded Saxony for Glatz so ensure the future security of Silesia.

If Prussia hard performed better in some earlier battles i.e. taking Prague and/or defeating Daun's relief force at Kolin, or decisively defeating the Austrians at Torgau with a better-coordinated attack between him and Ziethen, could Prussia have had the strength to occupy Glatz and Dresden by the time Austria had been utterly exhausted? Or would Austria fight to the bitter end to keep Saxony out of Prussian hands?

 

[PoeFacedKilla]

Even after years of battle and attrition, by the end of the Seven Years War, Prussia occupied most of Saxony and Silesia, but lacked the strength to take Dresden or Glatz, and thus traded Saxony for Glatz so ensure the future security of Silesia.

If Prussia hard performed better in some earlier battles i.e. taking Prague and/or defeating Daun's relief force at Kolin, or decisively defeating the Austrians at Torgau with a better-coordinated attack between him and Ziethen, could Prussia have had the strength to occupy Glatz and Dresden by the time Austria had been utterly exhausted? Or would Austria fight to the bitter end to keep Saxony out of Prussian hands?

The Austrian's will likely fight (after all they had just taken Silesia) but not indefinitely of course. Perhaps if the Prussian's do better earlier on it could be possible for them to force Saxony away from Austria and into their arms but I doubt this because the Prussian's barely got by towards the end of the war (I think given most POD's prior the 7 Years' War you don't get such an ASB event as the Miracle of Brandenburg) and even if you remove all of the arbitrary things like Prussia's ability to actually gain and keep Saxony at the end of or after the Seven Years' War you have to remember that most of these people have belonged to other countries at this time (Saxony had long been an independent nation unlike Silesia) and taking on such a large population all at once when Prussia's wasn't much larger would lead to years of revolts and trouble down the line.

The Prussian's will also be taking their part of Poland not too long after (or around the same time) so you would either butterfly away the Partitions of Poland as they were or you would be bringing an unwinnable situation upon the Prussian Kingdom especially if we get Napoleon (or even just the Revolutions of OTL.) Prior to the French Revolution there was a war brewing between Prussia and Austria, so if you could somehow get the Prussian's to wait until the late 1700s while managing to butterfly the Revolution (you would probably have to prevent or curb the American Revolution in order to do this) or make it very different you will likely end up with a similiar scenario where Prussia is coming to a point where it can start playing to dominate Germany through various means (OTL Prussia was attempting to instigate revolts across the Hapsburg terriroties, likely as a build up to a power grab that ended up lost to history.)

Although at that point you get a war we probably won't recognize because we saw OTL that Prussia's elite let hubris be their downfall and they don't have a king as skilled as Fredrick the Great leading them at the end of the 1700s.

 

[JackLumber]

Saxony is no mean prize the trick is getting Prussia the Victory, getting Peter on the Russian throne earlier could do it.
As to what happens after well old Fritz is going to want to connect his holdings and could come down with victory disease and start eyeing things like Hanover and Bohemia.
You now also have some very angry Wettins in Warsaw in addition to very angry Habsburgs in Wien, if the Wettins can get the Commonwealth's feet back under it (with some habsburg aid) you could have the makings for a great eastern war.

 

[Faeelin]

What's the basis for seizing Saxony, exactly?

 

[JackLumber]

What's the basis for seizing Saxony, exactly?

He wants and controls it I presume? Faux pas for the time but I can't remember him having a good justification for invading Saxony in the first place either.

 

[dandan_noodles]

As fortunate as the timing was, the Empress's death wasn't exactly ASB; she had been sickly for a long time, and getting up in age IIRC, and there had always been a faction in the Russian court that questioned her policy of war with Prussia.

Saxony is no mean prize the trick is getting Prussia the Victory, getting Peter on the Russian throne earlier could do it.
As to what happens after well old Fritz is going to want to connect his holdings and could come down with victory disease and start eyeing things Hanover and Bohemia.
You now also have some very angry Wettins in Warsaw in addition to very angry Habsburgs in Wien, if the Wettins can get the Commonwealth's feet back under it (with some habsburg aid) you have the makings for a great eastern war.

This might work in Prussia's favor, since it would give Russia an opportunity to seize Courland from the Commonwealth; they joined the Third Silesian War so they could steal East Prussia and trade it to the Commonwealth for Courland. This would offer an easier and more direct route, it would seem.

There's also the possibility that if the war spins off in a completely different direction, you could compensate the king of Saxony by taking the Austrian Netherlands and giving it to him. It's probably the territory Austria can most afford to lose anyway.

 

[JackLumber]

As fortunate as the timing was, the Empress's death wasn't exactly ASB; she had been sickly for a long time, and getting up in age IIRC, and there had always been a faction in the Russian court that questioned her policy of war with Prussia.


This might work in Prussia's favor, since it would give Russia an opportunity to seize Courland from the Commonwealth; they joined the Third Silesian War so they could steal East Prussia and trade it to the Commonwealth for Courland. This would offer an easier and more direct route, it would seem.

There's also the possibility that if the war spins off in a completely different direction, you could compensate the king of Saxony by taking the Austrian Netherlands and giving it to him. It's probably the territory Austria can most afford to lose anyway.

I have my doubts about the Wettins getting much in the way of compensation maybe so token guarantee of keeping the Commonwealth throne