Spanish Succession War: WI France conquered Turin in 1706?

What if, during the War of Spanish Succession (1700-1714), the French army led by de la Feuillade managed to conquer the Citadel of Turin and beat off the relief army lead by the Duke of Savoy Vittorio Amedeo and by Prince Eugen?

The POD could be that on the 30th of August 1706 Piedmontese sapper Pietro Micca didn't blow up the gallery he was standing in and the surprise attack by the French grenadiers managed to infiltrate the inner citadel, maybe blowing up the powder stores and causing it to surrender.

After thus defeating the city's garrison, the French could have defeated or at least stalemated the now much outnumbered Austro-Savoyards.

Effects of this?

Savoy exits the war and there is a direct overland link between France and Milan, which could then be held for longer, maybe until the end of the war.

The siege of Toulon of 1707 won't happen, thus the French Fleet of the Levant won't be scuttled, which could tip the naval balance in France's favour, in the Mediterranean at least.

At war's end, France will probably annex at least Savoy and Nice, probably some other bits of Piedmont, which will become a French satellite (or could even be outright annexed): what will be the fate of Naples and Milan? Could one be given to the Duke of Lorraine or the Elector of Bavaria?
 
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If the Franco-Spanish block managed to keep hold of Italy there could be significant butterflies in the long run.

Also I think that, without the Siege of Toulon, the French fleet could cntest the Mediterranean for longer (they lost at least fifteen line vessels that could not be refloated after being cuttled during the siege) and this could have repercussions on the Spanish theatre and influence the final outcome of the war.
 

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As the whole war was basically to limit France's power, I doubt France would be allowed to annex Savoy and Nice if they don't win several decisive victories after this one to create a total victory.
 
As the whole war was basically to limit France's power, I doubt France would be allowed to annex Savoy and Nice if they don't win several decisive victories after this one to create a total victory.

This would either mean a successful offensive in Italy to dislodge France, which would tie up resources that in OTL the alliance used in other theatres, or territorial concessions elsewhere to convince France to retreat from the lands she would be occupying in the Duchy of Savoy.
 
I'm not sure a French victory would be a total disaster for the allies. OTL Eugene deferated the French in northern Italy and secured Milan by 1707. Austria then made an agreement with France that allowed the French to withdraw unmolested from Italy so long as the troops wouldn't fight there again. So France was able to pull out the armies it had bottled up in Naples and send the promptly to Spain where Berwick had just driven Charles and the allies from Madrid. The deal secured Spanish Italy for Austria but greatly annoyed the allies who saw it as a unilateral move by Austria to cut a separate deal with France. It also diverted Austrian arms south into Naples instead of attacking France.

But a lot depends on how badly the French defeat Eugene. If they capture Turin before he can relieve it and then fend off his attack he may be able to withdraw in good order. The French still hold Milan and Modena and maybe Mantova but they're facing a large Austrian army across the Adige. They've still been defeated at Ramilles but have countered most of Marlborough's successive attacks. Critically, Spain may play out differently in the following year.

In 1707 the allies, having withdrawn from Madrid, still held most of Aragon, Valencia and Catalonia. There was great debate on the allied side as to whether they should adopt a defensive strategy or march once again upon Madrid. In the end the decided that Charles and his Austrian forces would sit defensively in Catalonia while the British would march forth from Valencia in a pincer with an Anglo-Portuguese force moving in from the west. This ultimately lead to the catastrophic allied defeat at Almanza at the hands of the Duke of Berwick. But with the allied defeat in Italy perhaps the allies opt for a defensive strategy. With French army still in Italy Berwick lacks the reinforcements he got OTL. And previous French attempts to take Catalonia in the 1706 had ended in disaster for the French. The fact was Catalonia was as pro-Habsburg as Castile was pro-Bourbon. So just as the allies found it extremely difficult to hold Madrid the Bourbons found Barcelona incredibly difficult to take. So the Spanish campaign may consist of a series of failed French forays into Aragon and Valencia.

Thus 1707 is mostly a stalemate but Austria is somewhat chastened and more dependent upon the support of Britain in Italy than OTL. Eugene's Italian army is made up largely of Germans bought and paid for by Britain. Joseph is going to be under even more pressure to come to terms with the Hungarians with French forces at the Adige.

So going into 1708 the allies may have a slightly better time in Spain if they still control Aragon and Valencia, rather than having been reduced to Barcelona and its environs. If Eugene regroups effectively he holds the line at the Adige. Perhaps he can gain a few victories, taking Mantova would be helpful to put the French on defensive at Milan. If he still has the bulk of his army after Turin he now has short supply lines and has shown an ability to outflank the French in the Po valley. There is also no reason to assume that Marlborough can't continue his offensive in the north. Maybe not Oudenarde specifically but a victory of a smaller scale is still possible. Then Europe faces the devastating winter of 1708-1709.

So the Bourbons still hold much of Spanish Italy but the allies hold half of Spain. Things in the Netherlands are similar to OTL, though the French position may be stronger. The allies maybe more inclined to entertain proposals for a peace settlement but the same obstacles exist as OTL, namely both sides want Spain. Philip is secure in Madrid and Castile and Charles is secure in Barcelona and Aragon. So the war probably continues at least through the 1709 campaign. With Eugene tied down in Northern Italy Malplaquet isn't going to happen and without an major allied victory the campaign in the Netherlands will just be a long bloody stalemate.

So with the allies weaker in the Netherlands and Italy but stronger in Spain, if only marginally, then a peace becomes possible. OTL Louis since 1706-07 had been willing to abandon Philip if he could retain France's borders in the north and reserve southern Italy for him. Now a French army holds Naples and Sicily, but the allies hold half of Spain. So the deal is simple, France cuts ties with Philip, but the French army remains in Naples and Sicily. Max Emmanuel is restored to Bavaria while Victor Amadeus is restored to Savoy. The allies are responsible for removing Philip from Spain but with a stronger starting position its possible. France gets to keep Tournai and the fortifications and Dunkirk so its marginally stronger in the north. If Philip fights on despite his grandfather's wishes then I could see a scenario where he is exiled to France after his defeat in Spain and instead his son Louis is set up in Naples under some kind of French regency. The big question mark would be the fate of Milan, probably depends on whether Eugene can take it before the war ends.
 
Vitruvius, thank you for the detailed answer!
I don't think Eugene's army would be destroyed, so the Italian front will probably remain open for longer and Milan might still fall in Austrian hands.

In the improbable case Eugene is decisively defeated France would become the uncontested hegemon in Italy, probably they, not the Austrains will be those interested in keeping Italy "a geographic expression" during the XIXth century.

I think that Amedeus would be punished for his choice of siding with the Alliance after having long been a French client, maybe Savoy could go to a cadet branch? In any case he won't get any kind of Kingship, and will probably lose some territory to France. I think that the House of Savoy will become rather irrelevant. Honestly, the whole of Piedmont could be assimilated without great difficulties, the elites at least were primarily French speaking even around the 1860's in OTL. Maybe after some undecisive battles in Lombardy France could renounce to Milan in exchange for the Habsburgs accepting her rule over Savoy and Piedmont.

In your scenario could instead Spain end up permanently partitioned? It looks to be rather implausible, but maybe it's not impossible...
 
Vitruvius, thank you for the detailed answer!
I don't think Eugene's army would be destroyed, so the Italian front will probably remain open for longer and Milan might still fall in Austrian hands.

In the improbable case Eugene is decisively defeated France would become the uncontested hegemon in Italy, probably they, not the Austrains will be those interested in keeping Italy "a geographic expression" during the XIXth century.

I think that Amedeus would be punished for his choice of siding with the Alliance after having long been a French client, maybe Savoy could go to a cadet branch? In any case he won't get any kind of Kingship, and will probably lose some territory to France. I think that the House of Savoy will become rather irrelevant. Honestly, the whole of Piedmont could be assimilated without great difficulties, the elites at least were primarily French speaking even around the 1860's in OTL. Maybe after some undecisive battles in Lombardy France could renounce to Milan in exchange for the Habsburgs accepting her rule over Savoy and Piedmont.

In your scenario could instead Spain end up permanently partitioned? It looks to be rather implausible, but maybe it's not impossible...

IOTL Victor Amadeus received the kingdom of Sicily and parts of the duchy of Milan. Whereas he desired the whole duchy of Milan and if possible kingship. A later war forced him to trade Sicily for the less important kingdom of Sardinia.
However IOTL Victor Amadeus had a good claim to receive a part of the inheritance in case of a partition, that wouldn't change ITTL. So perhaps now Victor Amadeus only gains the kingdom of Sardinia (right away) and nothing else; or get nothing in exchange to be restored to a 'Status Quo Ante Bellum'.

IMHO the historic end result, the partition, still seems rather likely. One claimant gets Spain and the colonies and the runner up is compensated with the Spanish possessions in Italy and the Low Countries.
I think it's likely that Austria would at least get the (now whole) duchy of Milan (they also really wanted that for strategic reasons) and Southern Netherlands (their allies would prefer them to have it). Naples and (ITTL) Sicily could go depending the final result, still if Austria ends up with only Milan and the Southern Netherlands, then they and their should really be defeated.
 
Sorry for reviving this, but I had an idea for developing this POD, assuming assuming that the war goes on more or less like @Vitruvius wrote in post 5. I don't think however that Charles VI would be allowed to be HRE and King of Spain, even by its own allies so a different solution is needed, while we can easily think that Sicily Naples and the Presidi (maybe Sardinia too?) wold go to Philippe. Savoy would be reinstated, yes, but they would be occupied until the end of the war, I am sure that they would not receive Montferrat nor slices of the Duchy of Milan, it is instead likely that France would want to "correct" the alpine border in her favour and to force a sort of demilitarisation of the Alpine passes. In any case Savoy would be drastically nerfed when compared to OTL.

The interesting idea I had concerns Milan. I suppose it would remain contested until the end of the war, but I don't think Austria can come back from such a significant defeat as TTL Turin would be and conquer Mantua and or Milan. France would very likely not be allowed to annex Milan, but the following arrangement could be found: France annexes Lorraine and Duke Leopold receives the Duchy of Milan in compensation. One should note that Leopold was also heir to the Gonzaga-Nevers lands (Mantua and Montferrat) and Milan would not lose any territory to Savoy, so it would be quite a nice little state with great economic potential. There could also be some avenues of expansion during the XVIII century against Parma or even Genoa, if the Dukes manage to follow some shrewd diplomatic/marriage/war policies. Would this be a possible nucleus for italian unification? Would there still be an Habsburg-Lorraine marriage?
 
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