WI Better ottoman expantion in Europe?

[EnvarKadri]

By better I don't mean more, in fact maybe less territory but more strategegical one be better.

Green Ottoman Empire, yellow romanian vassals, and red hungary (vassal/ally).
The conquest and direct rule of Hungary was a waste of resources and an strategical mistake. Logistics didnt allow the ottomans to govern or defend the territory efficiently (both communications and tropes from Constantinople were to slow to arrive), so clearly the vast majority of Hungary should be prop as a protestant vassal to shield ottoman territory from the Habsburg, and probably help mitigate european reactions to Ottoman growing influence in Europe of instead of direct conquest, the OE projects its influence through a christian vassal. Also trying to cement their rol as a promoter and ally of protestantism in Europe would open them to more permanent alliances with some states.
But there is still some territories in the balkans that could be managable and worthy for the ottomans: Dalmatia and Corfu and the rest of the Ionian islands, Temesvar and Slavonia (all marked on the map).
Dalmatia and those islands are vital territory to to guaranteed ottoman hegemony in the Adriatic and the eastern mediterranean and to defend the western coeast of the empire, also there lightly populated rich provinces. The italian dalmatian cities would go to vassal Ragusa.

Trau, Splato and the islands in between surely would go to Ragusa and maybe Zara too, or maybe the OE decides they need a god port city on the northeastern Adriatic. The westernmost three could go either to Ragusa or vassal Hungary, depending of wathever the ottomans want Hungary to have a strong coast or not. The Ionian islands would be annexed of course.
Now Slavonia, the region between Bosnia and the Drava river. I don't know much of the region but I think after the conquest must of it was added to the Bosnia Eyalet, so it would make Bosnia larger, still allow them to keem a nice river frontier but thend towards the flat terrain unlike bosnia but communications must be ok and still gibs better strategical deep to Bosnia.

Now Temesvar:

It has a river borders so I guess that must help with communications and defence. Also its majority serbian and romanian orthodox but hungarians and germans were quite capable in expanding their minorities there so I guess the ottomans should be able to create muslim and hungarian protestant plurality in the region. But the most important thing it gibs strategical deep to Belgrade Pashaluk, which was historical low in population being the area of entry of Habsburg armies and the starting point of Austian supported revolts, both thing that first resulted in lots of violance against muslim which the ottomans would later return whit violance againt the orthodox population, not to mention being the place of battles between the two, all that keep the population low. Being better protected would mean that more muslims would arrive and live there and the serbians would be less prone to rebelion, also the place wouldnt get burned down in war every few decades.
Now the most important thing is to achieve a strong Hungary to act against Habsburg ambitions. Letting this Hungary control Croatia proper to give them a coast and servinf as a sanitary cordon between ottomans domains and Habsburg lands. If Hungary exists and is under christian rule (though protestant) I guess there would be less alarm in Poland and Russia, and maybe pass as Ottoman interference in disputes among christian rulers rather then muslim rule expanding into central europe, so maybe it would be less likely for them to interfere if the ottomans help Hungary "regains its western domains and sack Vienna". But more importantly it would give the ottomans a strong christhian ally that could project power in the pannonian basin and defend their borders.
Could the ottomans achieve this and keep ot long term? What would be the ramifications of a less expanded but better defended ottoman europe?

 

[EMT]

I like the premise here. IMO the optimal way for a Hungarian-Ottoman detente to develop would be to alter the late stages of the Ottoman-Hungarian Wars. Have the Ottomans overrun Belgrade and Slavonia with ease, but have their attention pulled away. A hasty peace gets signed where the Ottomans guarantee Hungary's territorial integrity. Hungary is crippled but not out, and the Hapsburgs are looking on with hunger.

Have the Hapsburgs(Austria + Spain) form more of an existential threat to Hungary, and Hungary shoukd(keyword should) fall into the Ottoman sphere as they have no hope of actually taking back Slavonia but the Ottomans view the Hungarians as not worth the time, instead focused on the Hapsburgs in Southern Italy/The Mediterranean and the Persians.

By the time alt-30 Years' War, Hungary and the Ottomans are an informal alliance where the Ottomans guarantee Hungarian territorial integrity and the two are aligned in anti-Hapsburg/anti-Catholic solidarity(Hungary would have gone for Protestantism in this scenario, especially if the Church was receptive to Hapsburg advances). The Ottomans aren't forcing tribute or vassalage...yet. In their minds it's not the right time so long as the Hapsburgs threaten their Mediterranean ambitions. Plus the Ottomans have come to realize how much of a pain in the ass marching troops to Vienna is, so their focus is far more naval in nature and their empire thus more centralized due to the administration being centered along the coastlines of the Empire.

Tl;dr Hungary is the Ottoman's top hat and barring dynastic shenanigans or a particularly foolish Sultan this state of affairs remains throughout the early modern period

 

[Evil Crusader]

Great idea and good effort.

But distance is as good of a factor for Hungary actually deciding it has appetite for indipendence and Ottoman lands.

Sure, it still would work to the Ottomans' advantage in the very long run, but at the very least in the mid terms it's a constant headache.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

By better I don't mean more, in fact maybe less territory but more strategegical one be better. View attachment 449961
Green Ottoman Empire, yellow romanian vassals, and red hungary (vassal/ally).
The conquest and direct rule of Hungary was a waste of resources and an strategical mistake. Logistics didnt allow the ottomans to govern or defend the territory efficiently (both communications and tropes from Constantinople were to slow to arrive), so clearly the vast majority of Hungary should be prop as a protestant vassal to shield ottoman territory from the Habsburg, and probably help mitigate european reactions to Ottoman growing influence in Europe of instead of direct conquest, the OE projects its influence through a christian vassal. Also trying to cement their rol as a promoter and ally of protestantism in Europe would open them to more permanent alliances with some states.
But there is still some territories in the balkans that could be managable and worthy for the ottomans: Dalmatia and Corfu and the rest of the Ionian islands, Temesvar and Slavonia (all marked on the map).
Dalmatia and those islands are vital territory to to guaranteed ottoman hegemony in the Adriatic and the eastern mediterranean and to defend the western coeast of the empire, also there lightly populated rich provinces. The italian dalmatian cities would go to vassal Ragusa.

Trau, Splato and the islands in between surely would go to Ragusa and maybe Zara too, or maybe the OE decides they need a god port city on the northeastern Adriatic. The westernmost three could go either to Ragusa or vassal Hungary, depending of wathever the ottomans want Hungary to have a strong coast or not. The Ionian islands would be annexed of course.
Now Slavonia, the region between Bosnia and the Drava river. I don't know much of the region but I think after the conquest must of it was added to the Bosnia Eyalet, so it would make Bosnia larger, still allow them to keem a nice river frontier but thend towards the flat terrain unlike bosnia but communications must be ok and still gibs better strategical deep to Bosnia.

Now Temesvar:

It has a river borders so I guess that must help with communications and defence. Also its majority serbian and romanian orthodox but hungarians and germans were quite capable in expanding their minorities there so I guess the ottomans should be able to create muslim and hungarian protestant plurality in the region. But the most important thing it gibs strategical deep to Belgrade Pashaluk, which was historical low in population being the area of entry of Habsburg armies and the starting point of Austian supported revolts, both thing that first resulted in lots of violance against muslim which the ottomans would later return whit violance againt the orthodox population, not to mention being the place of battles between the two, all that keep the population low. Being better protected would mean that more muslims would arrive and live there and the serbians would be less prone to rebelion, also the place wouldnt get burned down in war every few decades.
Now the most important thing is to achieve a strong Hungary to act against Habsburg ambitions. Letting this Hungary control Croatia proper to give them a coast and servinf as a sanitary cordon between ottomans domains and Habsburg lands. If Hungary exists and is under christian rule (though protestant) I guess there would be less alarm in Poland and Russia, and maybe pass as Ottoman interference in disputes among christian rulers rather then muslim rule expanding into central europe, so maybe it would be less likely for them to interfere if the ottomans help Hungary "regains its western domains and sack Vienna". But more importantly it would give the ottomans a strong christhian ally that could project power in the pannonian basin and defend their borders.
Could the ottomans achieve this and keep ot long term? What would be the ramifications of a less expanded but better defended ottoman europe?

The Ottomans can achieve this. The tricky part is if Hungary wants to stay friends for long after losing the Banat and Slavonia.

For the Ottomans this is much better as 1). The Habsburgs don't get bigger than they were and thus wasteful wars are largely avoided. Although this does not prevent later unions and Bohemia is still under union with Hungary (might be good). And 2). Ottoman resources can be spent elsewhere, like to Persia and most likely Italy.

In OTL, the Ottomans did not occupy Hungary before the 1540s. When Zapolya was losing, the Ottomans entered Hungary and annexed Central Hungary. Either Ferdinand fails to secure Hungary badly or Louis II lives after Mohacs and has an heir.

 

[EnvarKadri]

The Ottomans can achieve this. The tricky part is if Hungary wants to stay friends for long after losing the Banat and Slavonia.

For the Ottomans this is much better as 1). The Habsburgs don't get bigger than they were and thus wasteful wars are largely avoided. Although this does not prevent later unions and Bohemia is still under union with Hungary (might be good). And 2). Ottoman resources can be spent elsewhere, like to Persia and most likely Italy.

In OTL, the Ottomans did not occupy Hungary before the 1540s. When Zapolya was losing, the Ottomans entered Hungary and annexed Central Hungary. Either Ferdinand fails to secure Hungary badly or Louis II lives after Mohacs and has an heir.

Could they just return the land they took in 1540 to their vassal later? A few decades down the line they destroyed the estructure of the catholic church in Hungary and would be giving back a overwhelmingly calvinist (but less populated) hungary. Its imposible to keep Slavonia and Banat and have a friendly Hungary? Banat seems especially necesary to protect Belgrade from centuries of war.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Could they just return the land they took in 1540 to their vassal later? A few decades down the line they destroyed the estructure of the catholic church in Hungary and would be giving back a overwhelmingly calvinist (but less populated) hungary. Its imposible to keep Slavonia and Banat and have a friendly Hungary? Banat seems especially necesary to protect Belgrade from centuries of war.

Returning Central Hungary is risky as the Habsburgs are not decisively defeated yet. That is why the Ottomans took direct control. If the Habsburgs are decisively crushed then Hungary could keep all of their land. The Habsburgs are kinda screwed as the Ottomans have no reason not to attack Southern Italy (with France) and a potential Calvinist Hungary on the doors of Vienna.

The relationship won't be hostile between the Hungarian King and the Ottoman Sultan but Slavonia and even more the Banat is a risk of war for later.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Great idea and good effort.

But distance is as good of a factor for Hungary actually deciding it has appetite for indipendence and Ottoman lands.

Sure, it still would work to the Ottomans' advantage in the very long run, but at the very least in the mid terms it's a constant headache.

There are some butterflies. The Ottomans not conquering Hungary may prevent the decline of the Janissaries. Thus the Corps may remain an effective military force as far as the mid 19th century if military tactics and strategy are not radically changed as OTL.

Keeping a friendly Hungary is by demanding a small symbolic tribute and keeping some garrisons in Southern Hungary. Their foreign politics is up to them. They are likely to be focussed on Germany, Northern Italy and Poland rather than the Danubian Principalities and the Northern Balkans.

 

[EnvarKadri]

There are some butterflies. The Ottomans not conquering Hungary may prevent the decline of the Janissaries. Thus the Corps may remain an effective military force as far as the mid 19th century if military tactics and strategy are not radically changed as OTL.

Keeping a friendly Hungary is by demanding a small symbolic tribute and keeping some garrisons in Southern Hungary. Their foreign politics is up to them. They are likely to be focussed on Germany, Northern Italy and Poland rather than the Danubian Principalities and the Northern Balkans.

The biggest problem with the Janissaries is not their military competence but their political power. They are a pretorian guard with parasytic administration tendencies.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

The biggest problem with the Janissaries is not their military competence but their political power. They are a pretorian guard with parasytic administration tendencies.

And that was starting from Murad III rule. In which Hungary was already conquered. Without the conquest of Hungary, the Janissary Corps are not bigger than... 18k men at max? When the Janissaries did start to meddle within Palace they had huge numbers in the Capital even during war as many were not even professional soldiers.

 

[EnvarKadri]

And that was starting from Murad III rule. In which Hungary was already conquered. Without the conquest of Hungary, the Janissary Corps are not bigger than... 18k men at max? When the Janissaries did start to meddle within Palace they had huge numbers in the Capital even during war as many were not even professional soldiers.

So keeping the Janissaries in line as elite soldiers is posible? Although probably you still need to change things regarding army administration and sucesion rules in order to close their window into parasytic elite.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

So keeping the Janissaries in line as elite soldiers is posible? Although probably you still need to change things regarding army administration and sucesion rules in order to close their window into parasytic elite.

Allow them an earlier retirement at the age of 50, a marriage in their last 5 years in the Corps and a land to live on in the Balkans after retirement.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Allow them an earlier retirement at the age of 50, a marriage in their last 5 years in the Corps and a land to live on in the Balkans after retirement.

Also keep them far away from Constantinople to avoid the usual sucesion scramble to apoint whoever their faction favor as candidate.

 

[Byzantine fanatic]

What would be the ramifications of a less expanded but better defended ottoman europe?

This is a great idea. Freeing up resources in central Europe, means the Ottoman Empire can redeploy its troops on other locations. This is fantastic. It seems there is a chance for Ottoman conquest of Malta (try again) and also invade South Italy. Perhaps the Emirate of Sicily can be resurrected. If southern Italy can be captured, the road is open to Rome...

Edit - I have composed another poem to celebrate. Victory to the Padişah!

Roma'ya gidiyoruz.
Ordumuz Papa'nın sarayına yürüyecek.
Kâfirlerin lideri yenilecek.
Muzaffer Osmanlı bayrağını Roma'nın Yedi Tepesine çıkaracağız.
Ve tüm dünya bilecek, Allah'ın sözünün hüküm sürdüğünü.
Zafer, güçlü Osmanlı ordusu.
Sultan bütün Akdeniz'i kucağında kucaklasın.

Ümmetli halk, neşeli şarkılar söyler. Şüphen olmasın.
Avrupa'nın kralları teslim olacak.
Gerçeğin ışığı bizi başarıya götürecektir.
Beraber ilerleyelim, zafer ve onur arkadaşlarım!

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

This is a great idea. Freeing up resources in central Europe, means the Ottoman Empire can redeploy its troops on other locations. This is fantastic. It seems there is a chance for Ottoman conquest of Malta (try again) and also invade South Italy. Perhaps the Emirate of Sicily can be resurrected. If southern Italy can be captured, the road is open to Rome...

Rome is safe even if it is within range. Francis wished Rome to be spared which Suleiman agreed. In OTL this prevented Barbaros Hayreddin to not raid Rome. Suleiman will wait until Francis dies. And then go for it.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Rome is safe even if it is within range. Francis wished Rome to be spared which Suleiman agreed. In OTL this prevented Barbaros Hayreddin to not raid Rome. Suleiman will wait until Francis dies. And then go for it.

I don't know if this idea of finishing of your enemies is good one for the ottomans in Europe. That strategy made them overextend themselves all over hungary trying to burn Vienna and destroying Habsburg power, actually created a big christian alliance from Vienna to Moscow, also including Poland and others. Aggressively trying to destroy your enemies seems to unite europeans against the ottomans. So leaving the Pope alone (there was a lot of catholic crowns fighting over control of the Papacy so if they see their useful tool is gonna be destroyed they may put their differences aside to make the OE back down) may be for the best and putting those resources into making Naples a vassal may be better.

This is a great idea. Freeing up resources in central Europe, means the Ottoman Empire can redeploy its troops on other locations. This is fantastic. It seems there is a chance for Ottoman conquest of Malta (try again) and also invade South Italy. Perhaps the Emirate of Sicily can be resurrected. If southern Italy can be captured, the road is open to Rome...

Edit - I have composed another poem to celebrate. Victory to the Padişah!

Roma'ya gidiyoruz.
Ordumuz Papa'nın sarayına yürüyecek.
Kâfirlerin lideri yenilecek.
Muzaffer Osmanlı bayrağını Roma'nın Yedi Tepesine çıkaracağız.
Ve tüm dünya bilecek, Allah'ın sözünün hüküm sürdüğünü.
Zafer, güçlü Osmanlı ordusu.
Sultan bütün Akdeniz'i kucağında kucaklasın.

Ümmetli halk, neşeli şarkılar söyler. Şüphen olmasın.
Avrupa'nın kralları teslim olacak.
Gerçeğin ışığı bizi başarıya götürecektir.
Beraber ilerleyelim, zafer ve onur arkadaşlarım!

I am not shure if Sicily is really that useful to the ottomans, it would require lot of resources to first "pacify" the whole Island (the christian can hide in the inland mountains when the Pasha in charge tryies to deport them to Naples) which would take time and resources and more importantly it would generate a strong reaction that probably would spread even non mediterranean europeans: iirc wasnt Sicily the provider of most Saltpeter (the most dificult to obtain of the thre main components of gunpowder) in Europe? The ottomans controlling it could generate way more trouble compared to simple annexing Malta (with this alone they could control the east mediterranean just fine). Of course if the ottomans annex Malta and Sicily COMPLETE naval hegemony in the Mediterranean is a must to keep the islands, also maybe vassalising Naples may be also obligatory.

 

[EMT]

I am not shure if Sicily is really that useful to the ottomans, it would require lot of resources to first "pacify" the whole Island (the christian can hide in the inland mountains when the Pasha in charge tryies to deport them to Naples) which would take time and resources and more importantly it would generate a strong reaction that probably would spread even non mediterranean europeans: iirc wasnt Sicily the provider of most Saltpeter (the most dificult to obtain of the thre main components of gunpowder) in Europe? The ottomans controlling it could generate way more trouble compared to simple annexing Malta (with this alone they could control the east mediterranean just fine). Of course if the ottomans annex Malta and Sicily COMPLETE naval hegemony in the Mediterranean is a must to keep the islands, also maybe vassalising Naples may be also obligatory.

Ruling Sicily directly is probably not worth the effort. IMO the easier way to rule Southern Italy would be to administer Malta, Messina, maybe Naples, and maybe another Italian port town like Bari directly. Large garrisons, active administrators that report directly to an Italian Pasha. Everything else I'd leave to local pre-invasion administration and leave the headache of managing it to the existing nobility. Essentially, split Southern Italy up into minor duchies that all report directly to the Ottoman South Italian administrator based out of Messina who is explicitly an assigned bureaucratic position that requires military experience and is not hereditary. So you'd have the 4 garrison cities and the minor dukes reporting to the Italian Pasha, who is a regularly rotated military commander tasked with governing Southern Italy.

Trying to rule Southern Italy more directly would potentially be the biggest military quagmire imaginable for the Ottomans with its lengthy coasts, hilly to mountainous terrain, and large Christian populace. On the bright side, if they did commit to subjugating Southern Italy utterly they'd have to go all in on their navy to not get kicked out between the instability of the province and Spanish invasions, and by extension have to shift things around to accommodate a more maritime administration. This'd likely be a net positive for trade and administration in the OE as a whole. The Ottomans would be wise to take on more Roman aspects of administration too if they're going to be trying to put on airs about their Romanity after conquering Southern Italy

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I don't know if this idea of finishing of your enemies is good one for the ottomans in Europe. That strategy made them overextend themselves all over hungary trying to burn Vienna and destroying Habsburg power, actually created a big christian alliance from Vienna to Moscow, also including Poland and others. Aggressively trying to destroy your enemies seems to unite europeans against the ottomans. So leaving the Pope alone (there was a lot of catholic crowns fighting over control of the Papacy so if they see their useful tool is gonna be destroyed they may put their differences aside to make the OE back down) may be for the best and putting those resources into making Naples a vassal may be better.

I am not shure if Sicily is really that useful to the ottomans, it would require lot of resources to first "pacify" the whole Island (the christian can hide in the inland mountains when the Pasha in charge tryies to deport them to Naples) which would take time and resources and more importantly it would generate a strong reaction that probably would spread even non mediterranean europeans: iirc wasnt Sicily the provider of most Saltpeter (the most dificult to obtain of the thre main components of gunpowder) in Europe? The ottomans controlling it could generate way more trouble compared to simple annexing Malta (with this alone they could control the east mediterranean just fine). Of course if the ottomans annex Malta and Sicily COMPLETE naval hegemony in the Mediterranean is a must to keep the islands, also maybe vassalising Naples may be also obligatory.

Sicily itself is dangerous in Spanish hands. It can and will be used as a base if the Spanish keep it. Making Ottoman Southern Italy dangerous.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Sicily itself is dangerous in Spanish hands. It can and will be used as a base if the Spanish keep it. Making Ottoman Southern Italy dangerous.

If Naples is a vassal is logical to assume that it controls sicily or is another vassal or the ottomans took it.